Predictability

I just like doing standup, that's all I'm interested in or good at.

-Norm Macdonald

Our brain is a prediction machine. 

We’re subconsciously calculating the world at all times. From what we see and hear to the rest of our senses. Every sense is a prediction we’re making. We can’t get away from our predictions. When you hear a language you understand, you predict what it means. You can’t unlearn the language and hear weird noises. Predictions seep into everything we do. 

Optical illusions are tricking our brain to make the wrong prediction. We’re making the wrong calculation given the data. Our brain can only make one calculation at once so it’s hard to know whether the dress is blue or gold. Look at the image of Wolverine above. You see wolverine. But notice how his face also looks like two batmans kissing. One on left and one on the right. Now, you see it. You can only see one image at a time. You see two batmans kissing or one wolverine. You can switch back and forth quickly, but you can’t see both at once. 

This is how our brain works. It can make one prediction, then almost instantly another, but never both at the same time. It’s impossible to hold both at the same time and there’s a huge tax to pay to keep in mind that both are true. This is why it’s hard for people to accept there’s truth on both sides. The truth is rarely in the middle, there’s instead truth on both sides. Most people can only see one truth at a time instead of understanding there is truth on both sides and switch back and forth.

Given the limit for most humans to see one truth. We prefer everyday life to be relatively predictable. Work should be designed this way too. People want to know that if they do well, they will get a raise. If others do poorly, there will be repercussions. There will be success if enough collective work is done. Many say they want to work at a startup, but once you get past the first few employees, you are no longer truly an unstructured startup. You are a company that needs to have basic models employees can follow. It makes sense as our brain is designed to predict things.

If the human brain is a super complex, deep learning algorithm, then early data is extremely important. Our childhood is our early training data that shapes our models of the world and can set us on drastically different paths. If we’re trained on bad data as a child, it’s difficult to reconfigure our model to get back on track later in life. It’s possible, but it’s necessary to acknowledge the flawed frames we used in the past. One can’t delete memories, so one needs to essentially rewrite experiences with new frames. The same is true for onboarding a new employee and setting expectations. 

An ultimate species would be one with the best prediction algorithm. Perfect prediction enables them to get whatever they want from other living organisms and from nature itself. If one had a perfect model of the world, they could predict everything. 

Great UX is making a product predictable. The product acts in a way that is intuitive to the user. This is what great technology is helping us do. Great technology helps us predict the world better. Great technology adds structure.