–Philip K. Dick
The simulation argument is derived from our understanding of the real world and games. It’s the idea that a human or group of humans living during an indeterminate time in the future, decide to create a simulation of the universe. They decide to create thousands or even millions of them. The odds of us living in base reality are thus less than one in a million. So, “we live in a simulation” is how the theory goes.
What’s the Purpose
If the simulator is attempting to recreate its own life, they don’t need everyone, let alone the universe. Why are they spending all the energy to do so?
What are they trying to accomplish with the simulation? Are experiments being run to stop a catastrophe? Even if that’s true, there’s massive collateral damage to run a simulation of only our solar system.
Evil Simulators
We live in a world where children die minutes or months after they’re born. No matter your belief system, a simulation of the entire world is remarkably evil.
What future morality could justify these simulations? Research, religion, curiosity? We aren’t allowed to reproduce the Stanford Prison Experiment or the Milgram Experiment. But in a future world, it’s ok to simulate someone being born in North Korea, born as a slave, surrounded by abusers as a kid, or destined to be a child soldier. Even with free will, there aren’t options for many. It’s torture.
Games
The top 10 best-selling games of all time are:
Tetris – 520 million units (includes all versions and mobile downloads)
Minecraft – 350 million units
Grand Theft Auto V – 215 million units
Wii Sports – 82.9 million units (bundled with Wii consoles)
Ark: Survival Evolved – 79 million units
Mario Kart 8 / Deluxe – 76.66 million units
Pokémon Red / Blue / Yellow – 76.14 million units
PUBG: Battlegrounds – 75 million units
Red Dead Redemption 2 – 74 million units
The Sims – 70 million units
The Sims is number 10. However, The Sims is in no way a realistic simulation of anything. It’s as much a simulation as Grand Theft Auto. Even Gran Turismo, a moderately popular racing game, is considered “simcade”—bridging casual racers and hardcore simulators.
However, we can make hardcore simulators. And we’ve done it. The most popular simulators in different areas are: Microsoft Flight Simulator (airplanes), Assetto Corsa Competizione (driving), Orbiter Space Flight Simulator (spaceflight), Steel Beasts Pro (military tank and warfare).
Simulation games aren’t popular. They’re mainly used when training.
Putting It All Together
So, to argue that we’re in a simulation, one has to say that we’re in a training/religious/research simulator for someone. Sure, ok. But then they ALSO decided to simulate the entire universe because they have infinite resources and no morals.
We know there are way more fun, magical, interactive worlds we can create. We’ve already made them in games. The top critically acclaimed games and games we love to play have little relation to anything close to a hardcore simulator.
We may one day reach a posthuman stage. And there may one day be more simulated worlds than biological ones. However, if we lived in a simulation, our lives would look more similar to or better rhyme with our most popular games. If simulated minds exist, 99.9% would exist in games and places that future humans enjoy spending time in. It’d be incredibly rare to be in an “accurate” simulation of the universe.
Also, to create a simulation at scale, there are issues with emergent complexity and butterfly effects. And questions as to whether consciousness requires a biological substrate.
I joke about being in a simulation because it’s funny. It’s funny because it makes light of everything. However, the odds are low. It seems we may live in a multiverse. But the living in an exact simulation of base reality argument doesn’t add up. You just gotta keep livin’.